Maths Gcse Edexcel Higher
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Conditional-Probability Edexcel Higher
Exam code:1MA1
Conditional probability
What is a conditional probability?
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A conditional probability is the probability of something happening (A) given that something else has already happened (B)
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It is written
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Pronounced “the probability of A given B“
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How do I calculate conditional probabilities?
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Conditional probabilities must be out of a smaller restricted set of outcomes (not out of all possible events)
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For example, if a computer randomly selects a digit from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
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P(it select a multiple of three) =
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This is not a conditional probability
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There are 3 possibilities (3, 6, 9) out of all 9 possibilities
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However, if you program the computer to only select from even numbers, then
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P(it selects a multiple of three given that it selects an even number) =
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1 possibility (6) out of only 4 possibilities (2, 4, 6, 8)
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This is a conditional probability, written P(multiple of 3 | even) =
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Examiner Tips and Tricks
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Look out for conditional probability questions within larger questions on two-way tables, Venn diagrams or tree diagrams
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They often use the phrase given that
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Worked Example
A Venn diagram is shown below. The numbers represent numbers of people.
When 1 random person is selected, find , simplifying your answer.
Responses