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Business_A-level_Edexcel

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  1. 1-marketing-and-people

    1-1-meeting-customer-needs
    3 主题
  2. 1-2-market
    5 主题
  3. 1-3-marketing-mix-and-strategy
    5 主题
  4. 1-4-managing-people
    5 主题
  5. 1-5-entrepreneurs-and-leaders
    6 主题
  6. 2-managing-business-activities
    2-1-raising-finance
    4 主题
  7. 2-2-financial-planning
    4 主题
  8. 2-3-managing-finance
    3 主题
  9. 2-4-resource-management
    4 主题
  10. 2-5-external-influences
    3 主题
  11. 3-business-decisions-and-strategy
    3-1-business-objectives-and-strategy
    4 主题
  12. 3-2-business-growth
    4 主题
  13. 3-3-decision-making-techniques
    4 主题
  14. 3-4-influences-on-business-decisions
    4 主题
  15. 3-5-assessing-competitiveness
    3 主题
  16. 3-6-managing-change
    3 主题
  17. 4-global-business
    4-1-globalisation
    5 主题
  18. 4-2-global-markets-and-business-expansion
    5 主题
  19. 4-3-global-marketing
    3 主题
  20. 4-4-global-industries-and-multinational-corporations
    3 主题
  21. 5-exam-technique
    5-1-the-exam-papers
    4 主题
  22. 5-2-business-studies-skills
    1 主题
  23. 5-3-structuring-your-responses
    5 主题
  24. 6-pre-release-preparation
    2025-pre-release-music-industry
    9 主题
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Decision tree diagrams

  • A decision tree is a quantitative method of tracing the outcomes of a decision so that the most profitable decision can be identified

    •  Research-based estimates and probabilities are used to calculate likely outcomes

    • The net gain from a decision can be identified and used to consider whether an investment is worthwhile

  • Using decision trees provides several key advantages to the decision-making process:

    • Constructing a decision tree diagram may reveal options that haven’t previously been considered

    • Managers are forced to consider the risks associated with their choice, ahead of implementation

    • The quantitative approach requires deep research to be carried out

Decision tree diagrams

  • The key elements in a decision tree diagram are:

    • Decision points

    • Outcomes

    • Probabilities

    • Expected monetary values

A simple decision tree

Decision tree diagram with options to open a new store or expand a website, showing probabilities and profit or loss amounts for each outcome.
A simple decision tree based on a choice of whether to invest in opening a new store or expand its website
  • Points where decisions need to be made are represented by squares

    • Square A represents the fact that a choice is required on opening a new store or expanding the website

  • Points where there are different outcomes are represented by circles called nodes

    • Circles B and C represent points at which the different options have a range of outcomes — success or failure

  • The probability or likelihood of each outcome is shown on the diagram

    • A certain outcome has a probability of 1

    • An impossible outcome has a probability of 0

      • Opening a new store has a 0.7 probability of success and a 0.3 probability of failure

      • Expanding the website has a 0.6 probability of success and a 0.4 probability of failure

  • The monetary value of each decision is based on the expected profit or loss of the outcome

    • If opening a new store is successful, a £420,000 profit is expected

    • If opening a new store is unsuccessful, a £24,000 loss is expected

    • If expanding the website is successful, a £480,000 profit is expected

    • If expanding the website is unsuccessful, a £32,000 loss is expected

Calculating expected monetary values

  • To compare the options, a business should take into account the expected values of each decision presented in the decision tree diagram

  • To calculate the expected monetary value of a decision, the following formula is used

(Expected value of success × probability) + (Expected value of failure × probability)

  • Using the example above, the expected value of opening a new store is

(£420,000 × 0.7) + (-£24,000 × 0.3)

= £294,000 + -£7,200

= £286,800

  • Using the example above, the expected value of expanding the website is

(£480,000 × 0.6) + (-£32,000 × 0.4)

= £288,000 + -£12,800

= £275,200

  • As the expected value of opening a new store is higher, at £286,800, than that of expanding the website, at £275,200, then, based purely on financial terms, the business should choose the option to open a new store

Worked Example

Caramelac is a lactose-free chocolate product manufactured by a large multinational confectionery business. In recent years, increased competition from other well-known brands has started to impact sales of the product, and managers are determined to maintain Caramelac’s market share.

Market research has shown that the business has two options: 

a) Redevelop the product
b) Create a new advertising campaign

The expected outcomes and the probabilities of success and failure are shown in the decision tree below.

Decision tree diagram with options A (redevelop the product) and B (advertising campaign), showing probabilities and potential profits or losses in pounds.

Calculate the expected values of each option and decide, on financial grounds, which option Caramelac’s brand managers should choose.

[6]

Step 1: Calculate the expected value of redeveloping the product

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