Exam code:7131
The value of cash flow forecasting
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Cash flow forecasts provide insights into the expected inflows and outflows of cash over a specific period
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By analysing these forecasts over time, businesses can better plan and allocate financial resources
Uses and limitations of cash flow forecasts
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Uses |
Limitations |
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Constructing cash flow forecasts
Key terminology associated with cash flow forecasts
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Term |
Definition |
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Cash inflow |
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Cash outflow |
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Net cash flow |
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Opening balance |
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Closing balance |
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An example six-month cash flow forecast
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Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Opening balance |
500 |
4,330 |
2,716 |
1,292 |
816 |
640 |
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Cash inflows |
||||||
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Cash received from sales |
2,600 |
2,800 |
3,100 |
4,600 |
4,800 |
5,200 |
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Capital introduced |
6,000 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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Total inflows |
8,600 |
2,800 |
3,100 |
4,600 |
4,800 |
5,200 |
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Cash outflows |
||||||
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Inventory |
1,500 |
850 |
950 |
1,300 |
1,350 |
1,400 |
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Wages |
2,200 |
2,200 |
2,200 |
2,200 |
2,200 |
2,200 |
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Utilities |
840 |
840 |
840 |
882 |
882 |
882 |
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Loan repayments |
0 |
284 |
284 |
284 |
284 |
284 |
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Miscellaneous |
230 |
240 |
250 |
410 |
260 |
260 |
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Total outflows |
4,770 |
4,414 |
4,524 |
5,076 |
4,976 |
5,026 |
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Net cash flow |
3,830 |
(1,614) |
(1,424) |
(476) |
(176) |
174 |
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Closing balance |
4,330 |
2,716 |
1,292 |
816 |
640 |
814 |
Analysis of the cash flow forecast example
Executive summary
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Overall, this cash flow forecast supports an application for the business to borrow £6,000 in January to cover the initial low inflows, significant outflows and negative net cash flow
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As sales increase from June, inflows are greater than outflows, and the business has a positive cash flow
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Should a loan be approved, the business will require any short-term sources of finance, such as overdraft facilities
January
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The cash flow forecast assumes that the bank approves a £6,000 loan in January (capital introduced)
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The owner has introduced an opening balance of £500
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The business is expected to achieve sales of £2,600
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Total inflows are therefore expected to be £8,600 (£2,600 + £6,000)
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Total outflows are expected to be £4,770
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The net cash flow is expected to be £3,830 (£8,600 – £4,770)
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January’s closing balance is expected to be £4,330 (£3,830 + £500)
February
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The closing balance from January becomes the opening balance for February
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Sales of £2,800 are expected to be the business’s total inflows
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Total outflows are expected to be £4,414
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The net cash flow is expected to be -£1,614 (£2,800 – £4,414)
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The closing balance is expected to be £2,716 (-£1,614 + £4,430)
March
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The closing balance from February becomes the opening balance for March
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The business expects to achieve sales of £3,100 as its total inflows
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Total outflows are expected to be £4,524
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The net cash flow is expected to be -£1,424 (£3,100 – £4,524)
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The closing balance is expected to be £1,292 (-£1,424 + £2,716)
April
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The closing balance from March becomes the opening balance for April
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Sales of £4,600 are expected as the business’s total inflows
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Total outflows are expected to be £5,076
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The net cash flow is expected to be -£476 (£4,600 – £5,076)
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The closing balance is expected to be £816 (-£476 + £1,292)
May
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The closing balance from April becomes the opening balance for May
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The business expects to achieve sales of £4,800 as its total inflows
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Total outflows are expected to be £4,976
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The net cash flow is expected to be -£176 (£4,800 – £4,976)
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The closing balance is expected to be £640 (-£176 + £816)
June
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The closing balance from May becomes the opening balance for June
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Sales of £5,200 are the business’s total inflows
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Total outflows are expected to be £5,026
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The net cash flow is expected to be £174 (£5,200 – £5,026)
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The closing balance is expected to be £814 (£174 + £640)
Worked Example
Here is a simple three-month cash flow forecast for a small seaside café
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March |
April |
May |
|---|---|---|---|
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Inflows |
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Sales |
46,000 |
54,000 |
61,000 |
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Outflows |
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Inventory |
13,000 |
13,000 |
13,000 |
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Wages |
28,000 |
28,000 |
28,000 |
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Miscellaneous |
3,500 |
4,000 |
4,000 |
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Total outflows |
44,500 |
45,000 |
45,000 |
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Net cash flow |
1,500 |
9,000 |
16,000 |
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Opening balance |
4,000 |
5,500 |
14,500 |
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Closing balance |
5,500 |
14,500 |
30,500 |
The café owner thinks that good weather will increase the volume of customers and decides to appoint another full-time assistant in March. As a result, wages increase to an expected £31,000 per month
Calculate the closing balances in the cash flow forecast resulting from the changes above
[4]
Answer:
Step 1: Insert the value of the new wages into the relevant space for each month
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March |
April |
May |
|---|---|---|---|
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Wages |
31,000 |
31,000 |
31,000 |
Step 2: Calculate the new total outflows for each month, and insert them into the relevant space for each month
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March: £13,000 + £31,000 + £3,500 = 47,500
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April: £13,000 + £31,000 + £4,000 = 48,000 (1)
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May: £13,000 + £31,000 + £4,000 = 48,000
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