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Exam code:C300

Conditional probability

What is a conditional probability?

  • A conditional probability is the probability of something happening (A) given that something else has already happened (B)

    • It is written straight P open parentheses A vertical line B close parentheses

      • Pronounced “the probability of A given B

How do I calculate conditional probabilities?

  • Conditional probabilities must be out of a smaller restricted set of outcomes (not out of all possible events)

    • For example, if a computer randomly selects a digit from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

      • P(it select a multiple of three) = 3 over 9

      • This is not a conditional probability

      • There are 3 possibilities (3, 6, 9) out of all 9 possibilities

    • However, if you program the computer to only select from even numbers, then

      • P(it selects a multiple of three given that it selects an even number) = 1 fourth

      • 1 possibility (6) out of only 4 possibilities (2, 4, 6, 8)

      • This is a conditional probability, written P(multiple of 3 | even) = 1 fourth

Examiner Tips and Tricks

  • Look out for conditional probability questions within larger questions on two-way tables, Venn diagrams or tree diagrams

    • They often use the phrase given that

Worked Example

A Venn diagram is shown below. The numbers represent numbers of people.

When 1 random person is selected, find straight P open parentheses A vertical line B close parentheses, simplifying your answer.

<img alt=”Venn diagram with two overlapping circles, A and B. A has 20, intersection 42, B has 63. Outside both is 14.” class=”ContentBlock_figure__vJw2q” data-nimg=”1″ decoding=”async” height=”1602″ loading=”lazy” sizes=”(max-width: 320px) 320w, (max-width: 640px) 640w, (max-width: 960px) 960w, (max-width: 1280px) 1280w, 1920w” src=”https://cdn.savemyexams.com/cdn-cgi/image/f=auto,width=3840/https://cdn.savemyexams.com/uploads/2025/05/62043_venndiagramwe.png” srcset=”https://cdn.savemyexams.com/cdn-cgi/image/f=auto,width=16/https://cdn.savemyexams.com/uploads/2025/05/62043_venndiagramwe.png 16w, https://cdn.savemyexams.com/cdn-cgi/image/f=auto,width=32/https://cdn.savemyexams.com/uploads/2025/05/62043_venndiagramwe.png 32w, https://cdn.savemyexams.com/cdn-cgi/image/f=auto,width=48/https://cdn.savemyexams.com/uploads/2025/05/62043_venndiagramwe.png 48w, https://cdn.savemyexams.com/cdn-cgi/image/f=auto,width=64/https://cdn.savemyexams.com/uploads/2025/05/62043_vennd

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